Why 75 percent of commercial roofers expect growth in 2026

After two decades in commercial roofing, the split I see right now is the cleanest K-shape I can remember. Two markets are forming inside the same trade, and every contractor I talk to is choosing a lane, whether they know it or not.

The 2026 State of the Roofing Industry report from Roofing Contractor puts the positive sentiment in plain numbers: more than three quarters of contractors surveyed expect their sales volume to increase this year. The macro tailwinds are real. Insurance-driven re-roofs are feeding the residential side. Commercial new construction is running at a steady clip in most major markets. The infrastructure backlog that stacked up during the supply-chain years is still working its way through.

And yet the contractors getting the most out of this market are not the ones who simply have more leads. They are the ones who are doing something specific with the volume.

Two types of contractors are emerging

Call them Type A and Type B.

Type A contractors are using the volume to build infrastructure. They are hiring estimators when the pipeline gives them room to absorb the ramp. They are buying equipment so they own more of the labor cost instead of renting at peak margin. They are standardizing their field processes so the third crew performs like the first crew. They are using the current cash flow to get off the bid-to-survive treadmill permanently.

Type B contractors are using the volume to stay busy. The revenue is going up. The team is stretched. The bid-to-win ratio is still below 30 percent because the pricing still chases market rate instead of targeting margin. The owner is still the primary estimator and the primary sales lead and the primary problem solver for field issues. The business is bigger and still just as fragile.

Both types of contractors are growing right now, because the market is growing. The difference shows up when volume normalizes, which it always does.

The numbers behind the split

The global roofing market is on a significant growth trajectory. IMARC Group projects the market reaching $44.24 billion by 2034, up from $23.35 billion in 2024. That is not a speculation. It is driven by replacement cycles, energy code requirements, climate-related re-roofing demand, and commercial construction volume.

Mordor Intelligence’s market analysis shows a similar growth picture and notes that contractor consolidation is already underway, with larger operators taking share through estimating technology, labor workforce management systems, and regional scale advantages.

The contractors who are building for that world right now are Type A. The contractors who are running the business the same way they ran it in 2019 are Type B, regardless of what their current revenue looks like.

What I see on the ground

I talk to commercial roofing operators across the Upper Midwest regularly. The pattern I keep seeing is not about company size. I have met $4 million shops that are clearly Type A and $20 million shops that are clearly Type B. The difference is not revenue. It is what the owner is spending their time on.

Type A owners are tracking their cost per installed square against budget on every job, tightening that number over time. They know their gross margin by project type and they use that data to fire unprofitable customer relationships. They have at least one person in the business whose primary job is estimating accuracy, not just sales volume.

Type B owners know their revenue. They might know their overall margin. They do not know which project types, crews, or customer relationships are dragging the average down. They cannot tell you the cost difference between their best crew and their worst crew on the same project type. That information is sitting in their QuickBooks file and nobody has ever pulled it.

The market will do a lot of the work for both types over the next few years. The question is what happens after that.

The split is about decision velocity, not just systems

People talk about the Type A / Type B split as a technology question. Better software, better job costing, better CRM. All of that is real. But I do not think the technology is the limiting factor for most contractors.

The limiting factor is how fast the owner can make decisions from data and act on them without second-guessing themselves back into the status quo.

I have seen contractors install job costing software and still run the business on gut feel because the data contradicted a relationship they did not want to end or a crew they did not want to have the conversation with. The system did not fail them. The decision velocity failed them.

Type A contractors are not smarter. They are not better at software. They are better at doing the uncomfortable thing when the data points at it. That is a leadership trait, not a technology adoption.

How to know which side you are on

Three questions. Be honest.

First: do you know your gross margin by project type, specifically, right now? Not overall margin. Margin on commercial TPO reroof versus margin on metal panel new construction versus margin on residential shingle replacement. If you do not know the spread, you cannot make the choice between types.

Second: in the last twelve months, have you ended a customer relationship because the margin data said to? Not because the relationship went bad personally. Because the numbers said this customer requires a margin concession every time and the pattern is not changing. If you have never done that, you are running on loyalty, not data.

Third: is there someone in your business right now who spends a majority of their time improving your estimating accuracy? Not doing estimates. Improving the process. Closing the gap between estimated cost and actual cost, job by job. If you are the only person watching that gap, you have a ceiling.

If you answered no to two or more of those, you are operating more like a Type B than a Type A, regardless of what your revenue looks like this year. That is not an accusation. The market has been kind enough that you could operate this way and still grow. The question is whether you want to be in the same position the next time the market gives you a similar choice.

What the Type A move looks like right now

This is a high-demand moment. If you are going to make the transition, the time to start is when the calendar has room to absorb the inefficiency of building new systems. That is now.

The specific moves I see Type A contractors making in 2026:

Hiring an estimator or project manager before they are underwater. Not after the next boom cycle. Now, when they can actually train the hire instead of throwing them into production week one.

Building a job cost review cadence. Monthly meeting. Every completed job. Estimated cost versus actual cost, by trade line. No exceptions. The meeting takes ninety minutes. It is worth more than any sales call on the calendar.

Tightening the bid filter. Defining the project types and customer relationships where they win at margin, and declining anything outside that profile. This feels like leaving money on the table until the first quarter where you did not chase a low-margin project and your gross margin held.

Investing in equipment strategically. One or two pieces that reduce their exposure to subcontractor rate increases or labor availability swings. Not everything at once. The piece with the biggest per-square impact on their core project type.

None of this is a breakthrough insight. Type A contractors will tell you they are just running a business like a business. The fact that it still counts as differentiated in this trade is the point.

The bottom line

The market is good right now, and it is likely to stay good for a few more years based on the macro data. The split is happening inside that growth period, not at the next downturn. By the time the market normalizes, the gap between Type A and Type B will be wide enough that Type B will spend years trying to close it from behind.

If you are running a commercial roofing operation and you want to compare notes on which side of the split you are on, get in touch.

Last updated: June 28, 2026